Forecast -Be it Weather or Stocks

An amusing remark runs around ,which interprets the predictions of the analysts as something unpredictable and not vouchsafed for.
Yes ,predictions by the foretellers are irrevocably baseless.
A few decades back, I used to follow the weather forecasts over the radio, as Televison was in its nascent stage.
The message broadcast, once informed that there would be heavy rain and strong winds for a week, as a depression had set in the pacific, and was moving at a great speed towards north.
The relay was so obviously certain that we were all expecting surplus rain , as the general condition was dry ,very much deviating from the usual tempo.
The rains did come but was in a drizzle and lay scattered over the districts. There was no sign of strong winds.
The weather forecasts are absolutely incorrect and it would be safer to count on the opposite connotations, that is, if they announce the climate would be hot and moist, then it would turn out to be cold and dry.

The stock markets als receive such kind of treatment rfom the market researchers.
If a broking firm calls for a surge of a particular stock, then we can be rest assured that the particular stock would tumble.
If the analysts give a buy significance to a specific share , then it would indicate a sell assumption.
The deep study of P/E ratio, the laborious research of technical analysis ,have proved an abject error in calculating the indices.
The valuation of the stock depends on the fund flow, profit earned ,and allocation of funds, that are reflected in the papers of the concerned company.
Well, how much can we rely on the papers, as most of them have been altered, forged and cooked up.
The regulations imposed by the government are only scratch proof. The loopholes are too many and it is a child's play to negotiate through the folds and emerge champion of the stock market.
Of late , we have the instance of the dismal hedge fund activity led by Raj Rajratnam, who minted billions , by deducing into the insider information.

As nature plays a truant in the traditional weather forecasts , the stocks jump start and startle the ongoing trade transactions.
It is beteer we go by our instincts than follow the measured study of the so called analysts .