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Monday, June 30, 2008

Intrigued Investor

Investing in what when inflation is running crazy.
Stocks ,commodities,real estate.
Which is better?
What is the best?
Investors are scratching the head,
Stocks have lost their glitter. Wall street, Shanghai and Mumbai are very weak.
Commodities find a safe niche,and probably the best bet.
It also has its shortcomings.
Today gold is trading at 930$,in March it was 1013$,last week it was 880$.
The difference is too high.An average investor finds it hard to combat.
Land is a good buy.
It has become too expensive
Development land is beyond the reach of the common man.
Building costs have escalated in geometrical progressions.
Agriculture land is affordable.
The returns they fetch is not encouraging.
Liquid cash is secure.
It has to dance to the whims and fancies of the ever changing dollar.
Have a smattering of all in your basket of investment, dear investor.
Success is yours.

Friday, June 27, 2008

Crude rides rude

Price of crude oil is a sensation.
It has become a cynosure of all eyes.
As it rises ,it shoves down stocks and pulls with it commodities like gold.
Its movements are closely monitored
Wall street, Mumbai and Shanghai,affected by its up and down movement.
The weak dollar and geopolitical activity in Iraq,Nigeria,are responsible for this erratic trend.
Inflation is staring hard.
Commodities are in upswing.
There is lot of deployment.
There is still more wage cut.
India's Reserve bank has increased the CRR.
Fed is aiming, but caught between housing slump and weak dollar.
The song in Sound Of music is well remnant of this situation
"How to solve the problem Maria?"
.

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Windfall Tax

Malaysia Is introducing windfall tax,to fill up its treasury.
The hike in gasoline by 41% has created much discontent.
Every commodity sees a surge in its prices.
Right from vegetables to cement there is a steep rise.
Malaysians have started feeling the pinch'
Stocks are trading low.
Now the new entry windfall tax.
Oil Palm plantations in Peninsular Malaysia are to pay 15%,over and above CPO price-2000RM.
For Instance
Price of CPO-3500RM
FIXED pRICE -2000RM
difference----1500RM
Tax 15% of RM 1500=225RM
The plantations paid cess last year to supplemnt cooking oil prices.
Now there is no scarcity in cooking oil supply.
The rise in cooking oil price remains the same
Will the government pass shotfall benefits to plantations ,if the CPO trades below 2000RM.?
Strange are the ways of the governments.

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Financial Inclusion

The Indian Finance Minister has asked the poor not to go to money lenders. If they approach the private financiers, then he ,in charge of the finance portfolio is a failure.
Well said,Mr.Palaniappan Chidambaram.
Admitting one's defeat needs courage and grit.
The Indian FM has almost accepted his shortcomings,though belatedly.
IS the honourable minister not aware of the interest charged by the private bankers?
The poor run from pillar to post seeking financial assistance.
Having been turned down by the banks, they resort to money lenders.
The loan sharks charge abnormal interest. Some even collect interest for a day.
Getting money from such people is immediate, has less procedures,and saves time.
THe Indian FM has promised financila inclusion for the poor in the banks.
They will be charged 10% interest.Even this is little high.
I recollect,Bernard Shaw's words
Lending money for interest is second to prostitution.

Monday, June 23, 2008

Triumvirs

Inflation,Oil,Financials of the present day are like Mark Antony,Brutus, Julius ceaser.in the Roman era.
The economy of most countries are wrecked by these three ominous syndromes.

The world is perplexed. The sooth sayers of finacials are doomed.
Bernanke has bluffed, fluffed,all of us ,by spelling out that dollar is getting strong.
Asian stock markets are gasping for breath. Mumbai and Shanghai are going down the slide .
Can the Triumvirs be tamed down?
The Roman triumvirate sealed their own destiny.
Can we look forward for such an end to thes three life like caricatures?

Friday, June 20, 2008

The Midas Touch

I read the story of Midas when I was in my primary school.I used to read it again and again. I was flabberghasted, as how God could grant such a wish to Midas-turning everything he touches into gold.Finally his food also turned into gold.This is the moral of the story.
In Cameron Highlands, Malaysia,I saw the same course of action, though in a different comfiture.It is a retreat for the Malaysians. The weather is pleasant. The flowers beckons while we negotiate the cuves, The huge trees wave to us,as if they are giving a rousing welcome.This Is what I expected. This is what I enjoyed two decades back.
But ,to my dismay,all these fascinating pictorials are absent today.
As you reach KG Raja, you see no flowers, no greenery, but espy the poly sheets that cover the nursery. White sheets,scatterd all over.
Every single stem, every flower,everyshoot fetches money.The flora and fauna is grown in Cameron ,exported to Holland,Japan,Australia.
It fills Malaysia's coffers,but drains the beauty of the land.
The dangling ,beautiful flowers are grown in Malaysia.
They are a feast to the eyes of Japanese, Australians.
True a modern Midas is in the offing

Thursday, June 19, 2008

Is your house in order?

Gold Man Sachs Vice President,Hormats, has called for U.S global policy retructuring.He said U.S has to improve economically and should become a leader in crafting economic policies.
Mr.Hormats,first set your house in order.
It is easy to preach than to practise.
The housing bubble,the subprima crisis ,oil surge,dollar weakness,are all manipulations of certain self conceited group.
"We have to give ,if we want to get"is Hormats rider.
Everything is reciprocal in this mad, mad world.
The need of the hour is good governance,not rhetoric oration.
Eloquence in action not in speech, is the requirement of this era of financial turbulence .

Monday, June 16, 2008

Gold surging, Dollar falling

Gold and dollar are making us gasp. A day back dollar was on the rise,gold fell to $865. Now gold is on the move-$887.Twists and turns beyond one's comprehension.
Dollar has been artificially strenghthened.
U.S. tried to contain oil and gold's upward trend,by nourishing dollar.
Financial reporting was at its height,very much similar to weather forecasts.
Their verbosity could only bring in temporary glory to dollar.
In spite of Saudi increasing its supply,oil has targeted record high of $140.
Inflation is spreading its wings in such velocity, that the world at large is apprehensive of the future.
The G 8 summit has ended in a fiasco. Keats would call it as"fever and fret"of the human race.
Let me conclude with Shakespeare's tag All is well that ends well.
Three cheers to Gold.To Dollar Better luck next decade

Sunday, June 15, 2008

Enterprising Mr. Chong

A trip to cameron Highlands ,this weekend,was an eye opener.I chanced to meet a chinese entrpenur.He is into flower exports.He has a patented a particular green tulip like flower in Holland.His 6 acre flower garden is bubbling with activity. It is mini Asia, as people from Bangladesh ,Nepal.India,and Indonesia are working. This man ,let we call him as MR .Chong,employs 60 workers.Right from seedlings,transplanting,rearing ,manuring,irrgation,sizing,packing are done under his meticulous care. The packed flowers,find market in Japan ,Australiaand Hongkong.The flowers are a feast to the eyes. The man is an embodiment of hard work Mr Chong ,is humility and success put to together.-a rare combination.

Friday, June 13, 2008

Dollar- a mystery

Watch the market Follow the financial reporting.View the snapshots.
Draw a graph. It will resemble an Electro cardiogram graph of aptient with a massive heart thrombosis.
The rise and fall are so swift,so frequent,so deep.
Cardiologists tell us to wait for anothr 24 hours or 48 hours .They buy time to announce the stability of the patient.
Analysts rush to announce that the dollar is strenghtening,retail sales are picking up,euro has fallen against dollar,in the G8 summit dollar will not be allowed to fall.
Dollar is being pampered,cajoled and assuaged,so that oil and gold will loose their sheen.
How long can they devolve such manipulation?
Why is U.S up to such pranks?
Gold is arm twisted,oil is knocked to satiate the thirst of US economy.
Mmarket gurus take the cue from the cardiologists.Practise patience.

Thursday, June 12, 2008

Pandora's Box

The pandora'sbox is wide open.Gasoline price hike,commodities price rise,oil price surge,bank rate up.All have jumped out simultaneously.The world is shocked. There is anger ,disillusionment and panic .How to come out of thos serious mess? This is what is written large ,which blinks outrageouslyon us

Market analysts, . Management gurus, chiefs of Reserve Banks have thrown their hands in exasperation.
All have faltered in their predictions and predicaments.They are advocating sluggishness and slow down..Their advice provokes the commoner.He yells "what were you doing all this time?'
A question most appropriate.It is like driving a nail into a bolt.
It is best,if all the sophisticated officials keep mum.The juggelery will come to a close.Inflation will come down, Allow nature to take its own course.Shun the intra players ,the corrupt officials,and monitor the day to day activities scruplously

Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Dead cat bounces back

Dollar rises high against all major currencies.A piquant situation..
This surprise move has stifled gold and silverOil accompanied the precious metals inthe fall.
Go back to the nursery rhyme Jack fell down and Jill came tumbling after.
Bernanke's hawkish comments have stimulated a negative trend.
An hour ago oil is ranging forward.Gold and silver will rush above 900$,in no time.
Dollar's movement should be watched

Gold -withhold ,watch,win

Gold is offbeat today.Dollar is masquerading,as if it is rising.it is not so. a ploy played ,to wean away the traders,projecting a low profile of the metal.gold is staggering. Do not get panic. do not fall a victim to the middlemen's ruse. By agitating the market,the middlemen try to acquire gold in a discounted price. Withhold .watch,win

Monday, June 9, 2008

Looking inwards

The G8 summit has decided to look inwards regarding oil inflation.
when we are at fault,we try to seek remedy elsewhere. It is nothing but human weakness.Many ways are there to cut inflation .The supply and demand is not proportional in the case of oil. India and china are fast riding economies. There is much requirement of oil.Russia and Us,are reluctant to release their oil deposits,targetting the prize catch, The OPEC ,feel that they are not the force behind oil hike. Decarbonising the power sector is one essential factor that countries have to pay attention to. Strengthening the public transport system is the other factor that will help to solve the problem.Prudent management of energy is the chief agenda that countries need to focus.
Inflation will be contained by delivering good governance,It is hard to find a country sans political corruption; bribery, cheating,,ill gotten wealth,scams,
Leaders are garrulous.
less talk ,more action,should be our motto .


1.Political corruption
2Hoarding commodities

Saturday, June 7, 2008

Behaviour Finance

Behaviour Finance has to be a given a deep thought.Management schools should include this subject in the curriculum. No two men are alike.Each has a different outlook, differentg taste, different likings .The decision also is not akin.
Management of big companies was under the family earlier. Strategies were dictated by the family head, followed most obediently by the siblings,sons and the managers.There was no dispute.The family run business was in experienced hands, no matter the person controlling the fiefdom was intelligent, pragmatic and progressive.
The scenario has changed. Globalisation has brought with it competition,swift actions,definite plans and focused enthusiasm.
The Hamletian philosophy "To be or not to be"will not hold water. Dilemma will not find a place in today's corporate management.
Next into equities and commodities trading,this behavioural aspect rules the roost.
To commit or not to commit is piquant. Investing in equities for a long time will be rewarded. In put in big, reputed trustworthy companies will findremuneration.
Trading short term is intersting,provided the flow is minimal.
These investments are like a garden .They have trees and flowers .Trees give fruits in a few years. flowers bloom ,fade away .Fruits are essential ,so also flowers ,they givebeauty and fragrance.
A setback in markets,sends shock waves. Succumbing to such pressure is regrettable.Ups and downs in markets are common. Take it in the stride. Be complacent,Minus 500 or plus 1000 is not a matter.

Friday, June 6, 2008

Suspended Belief

we are all victims of suspended belief.Equity market, commodity trading,real estate,are all in the grip of this phobia.What will happen? Will we see a rise? Is it going to fall?Will the economy be stable?queries rush into our mind. We are in a state of transcendental confusion.Mind is at peril.
Analysts add condiments to the broth.A prominent expert says buy this stock,bonus shares are to be issued. There is a mad rush, Accumulation works on.the next day the price of the stock dilutes.There is mood of disappointment,displeasure.There is a throb in the heart,if I had been less entusiastic,and more prudent,things would have been different.
It is this attitude that is pulling the market down.It is this feeling that is playing a havoc in the economy of the nations.
Inflation is camouflaged in India.There is a neat 15 % rise in the prices.People are disgruntled.
Media and analyst put the percentage of hike as 7-8%..it is a total misnomer.
The government of India has announced ,that it will contain inflation ,Another instance of misleading the people.
The government says ,there will be an industrial growth of 10%.Where is it?
investors,unmindful of technical calls, of market volatality,can nowinvest in reputed scrips-like SBI,L&T,Brittania,Telco. Maruti,infosys, TCS,reliance packages.
ctch them when they are low, you will be rewarded,
This is the recipe for success

Wednesday, June 4, 2008

The magic of Gold

The yellow metal is a safe haven for investors.Oil is tricky,one time it rises in leaps and bounds .the other occasion it retreats steepily.One is remniscent of the nursery rhyme ,Jack fell down and Jill came tumbling after.Gold moves in tandem with oil.
Dollar movement poses an interesting study.Dollar was all powerful,so long,holdingthe roost.
It manifests otherwise now.gold is caught between the two -oil and dollar.
At present it is struggling,to come out of ithe clutches .
Future trading in gold and silver keeps one in constant alert. glued to the market volatality.
If one wants to dab in trading gold futures, his mind should be strong, heart prepared to face any diasaster
One'sinvestment might fade in a few transaction,or grow in geometric progression.
the upwrd swing or the downward fall may stop the heart from pounding.
Any trade involves risk, gold trading is one such ,but risks are much more than any merchandise.The magic of gold will pull one into the events. It is too hard to resist

Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Banking psychology in India

I happened to read the Indian Finance minister,s announcement recently, about lending credit liberally to MSE's (micro small enterprises ).I was amused .A finance minister advising banks to
lend to MSE's citing the reason that they are decent job providers.A very late revelation MR Palaniappan Chidambaram.
MSE,s suferred because of the non chalant attitude of financial institutions.
Many entrepeneurs succumbed to the woes.Most of them have disappeared from the scenario,few of them have vanished from this hostile world.
When agriculturists ,commit suicide ,there is a great hue and cry.Politicians ,yell,that agriculture is the back bone of our country,media gives wide publicity, by photographing the farmer's widow and his children.Men in power, rush to the spot offering myriad waivers
Many MSE's and their promoters eat a humble pie. They are in the clutches of private money lenders , as the minister has rightly pointed out. No one is bothered about their difficulties.instead MSE's are wrecked by high rate of interest,statuatory obligations,tax,and other formalities.
My request ,to the Finace Minister,is that his call though very late should be put into action.
The financial institutions should pay heed to the FM's call and act at once
I end up with Abu Ben Adam's words "May your tribe increase" with a slight modification
May Mse's increase,thus bringing prosperity to the nation

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